reface xiv 1Psychology Is Alive and Well(and Doing Fine Among the Sciences)1 The Freud Problem 1 The Diversity of Modern Psychology 3 Implications of Diversity 4 Unity in Science 4 What, Then, Is Science? 6 Systematic Empiricism 7 Publicly Verifiable Knowledge: Replication and Peer Review8 Empirically Solvable Problems: Scientists’ Search for Testable Theories 10 Psychology and Folk Wisdom: The Problem with “Common Sense” 11 Psychology as a Young Science 15Summary 16
2 Falsifiability: How to Foil LittleGreen Men in the Head17 Theories and the Falsifiability Criterion 18 The Theory of Knocking Rhythms 19 Freud and Falsifiability 20 The Little Green Men 22 Not All Confirmations Are Equal 23 Falsifiability and Folk Wisdom 24 The Freedom to Admit a Mistake 25 Thoughts Are Cheap 27 Errors in Science: Getting Closer to the Truth 2 8Summary 30
3 Operationism and Essentialism:“But, Doctor, What Does It Really Mean?” 31 Why Scientists Are Not Essentialists 31 Essentialists Like to Argue About the Meaning of Words 32 Operationists Link Concepts to Observable Events 32 Reliability and Validity 34 Direct and Indirect Operational Definitions 37 Scientific Concepts Evolve 38 Operational Definitions in Psychology 40 Operationism as a Humanizing Force 42 Essentialist Questions and the Misunderstanding of Psychology 43 Summary 44
4 Testimonials and Case Study Evidence: Placebo Effects and the Amazing Randi 45 The Place of the Case Study 47 Why Testimonials Are Worthless: Placebo Effects 48 The “Vividness” Problem 51 The Overwhelming Impact of the Single Case 53 Why Vivid Anecdotes and Testimonials Are So Potent 54The Amazing Randi: Fighting Fire with Fire 55Testimonials Open the Door to Pseudoscience 57Summary 62
5 Correlation and Causation: BirthControl by the Toaster Method 63 The Third-Variable Problem 64 Why Goldberger’s Evidence Was Better 65 The Directionality Problem 68Selection Bias 70Summary 72
6 Getting Things Under Control:The Case of Clever Hans 74Snow and Cholera 75 Comparison, Control, and Manipulation 76 Random Assignment in Conjunction with Manipulation Defines the True Experiment 77 The Importance of Control Groups 79 The Case of Clever Hans, the Wonder Horse 83 Clever Hans in the 1990s and in the Present Day 85 Prying Variables Apart: Special Conditions 88 Intuitive Physics 90 Intuitive Psychology 91Summary 93
7 “But It’s Not Real Life!”:The “Artificiality” Criticism and Psychology94 Why Natural Isn’t Always Necessary 94 The Random Sample Versus Random Assignment Confusion96 Theory-Driven Research Versus Direct Applications 97 Applications of Psychological Theory 99 The “College Sophomore” Problem 101 The Real-Life and College Sophomore Problems in Perspective 104 Summary 105
8 Avoiding the Einstein Syndrome:The Importance of Converging Evidence 106 The Connectivity Principle 107 A Consumer’s Rule: Beware of Violations of Connectivity 108 The “Great-Leap” Model Versus the Gradual-Synthesis Model 109 Converging Evidence: Progress Despite Flaws 110Types of Converging Evidence 113 Scientific Consensus 118 Methods and the Convergence Principle 118 The Progression to More Powerful Methods 119 A Counsel Against Despair 122 Summary 124 9 The Misguided Search for the “Magic Bullet”: The Issue of Multiple Causation 125 The Concept of Interaction 126 The Temptation of the Single-Cause Explanation 128Summary 131
10 The Achilles’ Heel of HumanCognition: Probabilistic Reasoning 132 “Person-Who” Statistics 135 Probabilistic Reasoning and the Misunderstanding of Psychology 136 Psychological Research on Probabilistic Reasoning 138 Insufficient Use of Probabilistic Information 139 Failure to Use Sample-Size Information 140 The Gambler’s Fallacy 142 A Further Word About Statistics and Probability 144 Summary 146
11 The Role of Chance in Psychology 147 The Tendency to Try to Explain Chance Events 147 Explaining Chance: Illusory Correlation and the Illusion of Control 150 Chance and Psychology 151 Coincidence 151 Personal Coincidences 153 Accepting Error in Order to Reduce Error: Clinical Versus Actuarial Prediction 155 Summary 160
12 The Rodney Dangerfield of the Sciences 162 Psychology’s Image Problem 163 Psychology and Parapsychology 163 The Self-Help Literature 165 Recipe Knowledge 166 Psychology and Other Disciplines 167 Our Own Worst Enemies 168 Our Own Worst Enemies, Part II: Psychology Has Become an Ideological Monoculture 172 Isn’t Everyone a Psychologist? Implicit Theories of Behavior 178 The Source of Resistance to Scientific Psychology 179 The Final Word 182 References 183 Name Index 210 Subject Index 217