TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES PREFACE FOREWORD CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Challenges for Ecological Conservation in Florida 1.1.1 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise 1.1.2 Land Use Change 1.2 Conservation Planning and Reserve Design 1.3 Sea Level Rise and Spatial Conservation Prioritization 1.4 Study Area CHAPTER 2 CONSERVATION PRIORITIZATION IN RESPONSE TO SEA LEVEL RISE AND LAND USE CHANGE 2.1 Coastal Habitat Change Due to Sea Level Rise 2.2 Methods 2.2.1 Sea Level Rise Scenarios 2.2.2 Predicting Species Habitat Using Species Habitat Models 2.2.3 Landscape Prioritization with Zonation 2.3 Results 2.3.1 Species Habitat Change 2.3.2 Conservation Prioritization 2.3.3 Assessing the Current Reserve System 2.3.4 Assessing the updated Florida Ecological Greenways Network (FEGN) 2.3.5 Assessing the Critical Lands and Waters Identification Project (CLIP) Database 2.3.6 Assessing Projected Development 2.4 Discussion 2.5 Conclusions CHAPTER 3 INCORPORATING ECONOMIC CONCEPTS INTO SEA LEVEL RISE ADAPTIVE CONSERVATION PLANNING AND RESERVE DESIGN 3.1 Economic Concepts in Conservation Planning and Reserve Design 3.2 Methods 3.2.1 Estimating Conservation Costs 3.2.2 Integrating Conservation Costs in SLR Adaptive Conservation Planning 3.2.3 Estimating Conservation Benefits 3.3 Results 3.3.1 Conservation Costs 3.3.2 Conservation Prioritization Considering Economic Costs 3.3.3 Conservation Benefits 3.4 Discussion CHAPTER 4 THE VALUE OF DATA ACCURACY AND MODEL SOPHISTICATION IN SEA LEVEL RISE ADAPTIVE CONSERVATION PRIORITIZATION 4.1 Uncertainties in Sea Level Rise Adaptive Conservation Planning 4.1.1 Uncertainty in Choosing Elevation Data and Coastal Impact Models 4.1.2 Uncertainty in Elevation Dataset Vertical Accuracy 4.2 Methods 4.2.1 Sea Level Rise Scenario 4.2.2 Model-dataset Combinations 4.2.3 Comparison of Conservation Prioritization with Different Model-Dataset Combinations 4.3 Results and Discussion 4.3.1 Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment 4.3.2 Land Cover Impacts with Different Model-dataset Combinations 4.3.3 Species Habitat with Different Model-dataset Combinations 4.3.4 Conservation Prioritization with Different Model-dataset Combinations 4.4 Conclusions CHAPTER 5 SUMMARY, POLICY ISSUES, AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Summary of the Research and Findings 5.1.1 Sea Level Rise Adaptive Conservation Planning and Reserve Design 5.1.2 Economic Concepts in Conservation Planning and Reserve Design 5.1.3 Impacts of Model and Elevation Data Accuracy in Sea Level Rise Adaptive Conservation Planning and Reserve Design 5.2 Shortcomings and Future Research 5.3 Land Conservation Policy Issues for Adaptation to Sea Level Rise 5.3.1 Land Protection 5.3.2 Growth Management 5.4 Transferability to Other Coastal Regions and Integration to Other Coastal Decision Tools APPENDIX A SPECIES HABITAT MODELING DESCRIPTION FOR AMERICAN OYSTERCATCHER Summary Model Steps Model Script APPENDIX B FOCAL SPECIES IN THE MATANZAS RIVER BASIN STUDY AREA APPENDIX C THE RUN SETTINGS FILE USED IN ZONATION APPENDIX D SPECIES HABITAT CHANGE DUE TO SEA LEVEL RISE AND LAND USE CHANGE APPENDIX E THE RUN SETTINGS FILE USED IN ZONATION APPENDIX F CROSSWALK BETWEEN SLAMM AND FLUCCS REFERENCES FIGURES